Ouch My Head Hurts!

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR
I've always liked Sun Tzu's “ON THE ART OF WAR”. I find it fascinating that the advice is still so pertinent and applicable in the modern world. For those of you who have not read it, you need to. There is a reason it is still used in military academies today.

So let's evaluate Iraq with his criteria:

14. By means of these seven considerations I can
forecast victory or defeat.

13. (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued
with the Moral law?
(2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
(3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven
and Earth?
(4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
(5) Which army is stronger?
(6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
(7) In which army is there the greater constancy
both in reward and punishment?

1 Moral law: All sides have declared the moral high ground and all have squandered it.

The USA with torture and lies. Al Qaeda with the bombing of civilians. The Sunni for refusing to accept that they will no longer rule through torture and intimidation. The Shia militia for a willingness to “take it to the streets”. The Kurds because they are more interested in breaking up Iraq than peace.

Winners: Nobody!

2 General's Ability: If we were talking about conventional warfare it would be USA all the way, but we aren't fighting that war. Besides I've worked for our generals for 20 years and never been impressed with their ability to adapt. Add to that, being hobbled by political considerations, bureaucracy and an unwillingness for Americans to tolerate slaughter. For the type of war we are currently engaged in, I give the advantage to the insurgence. Not because their leaders are so good, but because ours are so bad at this type of war.

3 Heaven and Earth: My reading of this is climate and terrain. The insurgence has the advantage. The terrain is cities, where conventional military is at a disadvantage. The climate is desert. We are not a desert people. We are fighting in an alien land.

4 Discipline: The US military has a lot of discipline. It's questionable that any true command structure even exists in the insurgence, let alone being able to enforce an order.

5 Which army is stronger? In a conventional battle the US wins. In an insurgency? Simple force size numbers just don't matter as much as will. Are US solders willing to routinely and intentionally blow themselves up? We have the larger number of solders in the field, but we can't tell an insurgent from a civilian. And every time we shoot the wrong guy we enlarge the number of sympathizers. What good is strength if you can't find the target. Plus its their homes they are fighting for. I say we are currently tied, but their strength is increasing while ours is waining. Advantage to the insurgence.

6 Training: In a conventional war the USA wins, but this is not a conventional war. The knowledge base is available to the US military but will they use it? Can we afford to rotate troops back for training? Insurgencies tend to be more nimble than a standing army. Advantage will finally go to whoever masters the learning curve. After 20 years working as a civilian for the US military, I do not see them learning and adapting quickly. The insurgence has the simpler task of continuing to adapt their stealth killing tactics. It's a lot easier to teach someone to detonate themselves or a roadside bomb, than it is to train them to find an insurgent.

7 Constancy both in reward and punishment: US soldier are better feed, better supplied, have a regular pay checks and medical care. I give the advantage to the USA.


So whats our totals.

Advantage for the USA = Reward, Discipline
Advantage for the Insurgence = Heaven and Earth, Stronger, General's Ability, Training
Tie= Moral law

Just for fun here is my evaluation of the US revolutionary war (from my recent reading of “1776”).

Advantage for England = Reward, Discipline, Training, Stronger,
Advantage for the USA Insurgence = Heaven and Earth, Moral law
Tie= General's Ability,

Remember in the end it took French assistance to defeat the British.