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This rant is from the multiple political ideologies that live inside my head. They need a place to come out and play. (In a politically offensive way) Entry into this space is not advised!
Thursday, January 13, 2005
I was mulling over the whole Iraq thing the other day and a though bubbled up to the surface.
Isn't the real test of a democracy when your side looses?
With the Shia being about 60% of the population, maybe the really question for Iraq is: Are the Kurds and Sunnis good losers? It takes a lot of restrain and faith in the system to be a good loser. It takes a willingness to accept policies and laws passed by people you dislike (despise?).
Look what happened with the last election in the U.S. As emotionally crushed as the democrats were, Kerry didn't call for an Intifada. No bombing campaign has started. No targeted assassinations have occurred. No "Orange" revolution refusing to accept the results. Democratic angst seems to be confined to using "due process" and threats to move to Canada (something the Canadians don't seem to be encouraging).
And how would we feel if we lived in a democracy where we were in the permanent oppressed minority (like the Kurds in Turkey). If I remember my high school civics class democracy is "Majority rule with respect for the rights of the minor." If you are a Sunni or Kurd in Iraq what do you really have to look forward in the new democracy? If the Shia achieves a stable 60% hold on parliament, what incentive do you have for not picking up an AK47?
Of course in a Civil war you would also be out numbered. But the Sunni have been running the country for decade so a certain amount of arrogance and distain may exist in the Sunni population. It may be that the only think that could save democracy in Iraq will be the fracturing of the Shia vote into secular and religious factions. Such a split would force part of the Shia elected officials to form a coalition with the minority population. On the other hand, an even smaller group, who decides to perform selective assassinations, could easily disrupt this very delicate scenario. Killing Sunni, Kurdish and Shia politicians would be a great way to set three very distrustful populations at each other's throats.
In the end democracy may come down to a shot in the dark.
